Evaluating India’s Import-Dependence on China for Bulk Drug Supply: Implications for Public Health

Abstract

The pharmaceutical industry is an extremely strategic sector for India. It not only meets the health needs of India’s population of 1.3 billion, but also contributes approximately 1.5 percent of the country’s GDP directly, and 3 percent indirectly (Sahay 2020). India’s mastery over low cost yet, highly effective drug formulations has also earned India the title of the “pharmacy of the world” – fulfilling global demand for generic medicines and various vaccinations. However, Covid-19 has exposed the weak foundations of this proud industry – its excessive import dependence for sourcing raw materials, known as bulk drugs. Most worryingly, close to two-third of these are imported from a single source – China (Sarda 2020). Thus, the attack by Coronavirus has proved no less than an attack in war, as it has exposed the overreliance of the Indian pharma sector on China, with whom our diplomatic relations are increasingly strained. As the saying goes, “never waste a good crisis”. While the pandemic has wrecked havoc on the nation’s health and economy, it has opened an opportunity for the Indian pharmaceutical industry to play an even more important role in global healthcare. For this, self-reliance in the starting point of manufacturing pharmaceutical formulations, i.e., bulk drugs and intermediaries is a must, and targeted policy focus is long overdue. Through my dissertation I wish to evaluate India’s bulk drug import dependency on China and provide economic insights based on production and import trends. The research also explores how such overreliance on imports threatens national public health security. Finally, towards finding solutions, a thorough analysis of the factors contributing to China’s success and policy recommendations for India to develop self-sufficiency in bulk drug production have been presented.